Monthly Market Commentaries

After the strong returns in January, global equities declined in February. Investors became concerned that the resilient economic data published during the month will mean that interest rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Reserve (US Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) all raised interest rates in the month, which lead to bond yields rising and prices falling.

Equities started strongly in January 2023 with gains across the vast majority of global markets. A number of factors contributed to this positive start, including China’s decision to relax its zero-Covid policy and signs that inflation may have peaked. Furthermore, Central Banks may be close to the peak of their rate hiking cycle, with the pace of rates hikes also slowing.

Equity markets in general rounded off a volatile year with gains in the last quarter of 2022. Albeit with the exception of China, most major equity markets finished down in December. Chinese shares were boosted by the relaxation of its zero-Covid policy.

Government bond yields edged up in December, meaning prices fell. The rise in yields was in part a reaction to market disappointment that the main Central Banks reiterated their plans to continue to tighten monetary policy, even with inflation showing signs of having peaked.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, presented the Autumn Statement to Parliament on the 17th November 2022.

This Autumn Statement follows Kwasi Kwarteng’s September ‘mini-Budget’ which Mr Hunt effectively cancelled on becoming Chancellor, and takes place against a backdrop of talk of a return to austerity at the same time as the UK seems to be on the verge of a long recession and RPI inflation is at its highest since December 1980.

Earlier this year, following Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement, a full Budget was expected to take place this autumn, but it now seems that 2022 will join 2019 as the only years in the last two centuries without a full UK Budget.

This snapshot gives you a summary of the key points announced by the Chancellor from the dispatch box. More details are available from GOV.UK.

October saw a rally in developed market equities, but in stark contrast emerging market equities fell. Chinese equities were particularly weak as President Xi reiterated that his zero-Covid policy would continue to be enforced for the foreseeable future.

It was also another disappointing month for global bonds. Albeit the UK bucked this trend, as Gilt valuations rose, their yields fell, with the market reacting positively to the appointment of Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister and the expectation of greater fiscal responsibility.

After rallying in the previous month, equities and bonds registered negative returns in September. Asian and Emerging Markets were the worst performing equity indices, but all major global equity indices posted negative returns. Whilst the returns on global bonds were not as bad as equities, the hopes of interest rate cuts dissipated as central banks reaffirmed their commitment to fighting persistently high levels of inflation. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) all raised interest rates again.