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Our monthly market update.
Global equity markets advanced in August, supported by easing inflationary pressures, resilient corporate earnings, and increased expectations of interest rate reductions from major central banks. Developed markets outperformed their emerging market counterparts over the month, while fixed income markets were mixed, with performance varying across regions.
Markets delivered positive returns in July, with trade tensions easing and company results reassuring investors. The US and Japan led gains due to strong performances in technology and export-driven sectors. Europe and the UK also advanced on solid corporate earnings, while emerging markets benefited from optimism around AI, particularly in Taiwan and Korea. However, India and Brazil struggled under the weight of new US tariffs.
The quarter was characterised by a rise in geopolitical tensions due to the threat of US tariffs and further hostilities in the Middle East, the latter of which de-escalated relatively quickly. The initial recession fears around the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements in the US eased as a more conciliatory approach was ultimately taken. Despite President Trump unveiling higher than anticipated broad-based tariffs, these were generally suspended for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations to take place.
Markets recovered during May, as consumer sentiment improved and trade tensions eased. Progress was made in US trade negotiations with both the European Union (EU) and China, as temporary delays to the proposed tariffs were announced. Following this announcement, the fear that tariffs could trigger a global recession abated
After months of speculation, April finally saw the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs by President Trump, which were broader and more punitive than had been expected.
Q1 2025 was volatile. Volatility has stemmed from elevated investor uncertainty regarding US trade policy. This has subsequently dampened global growth expectations, but in particular this has impacted the US and Europe the most.
Growing uncertainty about the impact of the US Administration’s policy agenda weighed on investor sentiment, which was further exacerbated by renewed concerns about slowing global growth.